Trading the 2026-27 NBA season on Kalshi and Polymarket
The NBA season opens October 20. Kalshi and Polymarket will list every game. This guide covers the dates that move the most volume, how game contracts work, what they cost, and how to tell when a price is worth a closer look.
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 20, 2026 | Opening night: Celtics at Pistons, 76ers at Knicks, Thunder at Spurs |
| Fri, Oct 30, 2026 | NBA Cup group play begins |
| Fri, Dec 4, 2026 | NBA Cup knockout rounds begin |
| Fri, Dec 11, 2026 | NBA Cup final, Indianapolis |
| Fri, Dec 25, 2026 | Christmas Day: five games |
| Thu, Feb 11, 2027 | Trade deadline |
| Feb 19–21, 2027 | All-Star weekend, Phoenix |
Tonight’s biggest Kalshi–Polymarket gaps
Loading live NBA prices…
How NBA game contracts work
Each game has a contract for each team. A contract pays $1 if that team wins and nothing if it loses. If the Celtics trade at 64¢, the market gives them about a 64% chance. You can buy, then sell before tip-off at the current bid, or hold until the game settles.
Both venues also list spreads and totals. A spread contract pays if the team covers a set margin; a total contract pays if combined points go over a set number.
What it costs
Kalshi charges a taker fee of about 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, rounded up to the cent. Polymarket charges a market-specific rate on the same curve, and many sports markets are fee-free. Buying at the ask and selling at the bid also costs you the spread.
When a price deserves a closer look
Courtside builds a fair value for every game from several sportsbooks after removing their margin. When an exchange price sits below that fair value after fees, the board highlights it. Treat it as a reason to check the news, the depth and the contract rules — not as a guaranteed edge.
- Check freshness: a gap built on an old quote is not real.
- Check depth: the best price may only cover a small order.
- Check settlement: contracts with different rules are not comparable.
Common questions
When does the 2026-27 NBA season start?
Opening night is Tuesday, October 20, 2026, with three games on NBC and Peacock.
Does Kalshi have markets for every NBA game?
Kalshi typically lists a moneyline for every regular-season game, along with spreads, totals and season futures.
Are NBA Cup games on prediction markets?
Yes. NBA Cup group games count as regular-season games and are listed like any other game; the knockout rounds and final are also listed.
How do I find the best price for a game?
Compare Kalshi, Polymarket and a margin-removed sportsbook price after fees. Courtside’s game pages show all three for every NBA game.